The 2025 China and Global Food Policy Report (English version) was released on July 8th. Under the theme "Low-Carbon Transformation of Chinese Agrifood Systems," this year's report specifically addresses carbon emissions in agrifood systems, providing in-depth analyses of key areas such as crop and livestock production transformations, energy utilization optimizations, food loss and waste reductions and dietary shifts, while exploring synergistic integration pathways across these domains. The report is led by Academy of Global Food Economics and Policy, with contributions from partner institutions.
Key Findings
1. Global Progress: The transformation of agrifood systems has received increasing global attention. Significant international progress has been made in reducing crop and livestock emissions, and promoting low-carbon energy transitions, as well as reducing food loss and waste, transforming dietary structures, and optimizing agriculture, forestry, and other land use. However, China faces dual constraints of low public awareness and weak strategic planning, coupled with low policy support and inadequate R&D investment on low-carbon technologies.
2. Rice Methane: Emissions: China’s rice methane emissions exhibit significant regional variation. Methane emission intensity is influenced by the interactive effects of multiple factors, including soil, water, climate, and management practices. Double-cropping areas in the south have higher emission intensity due to prolonged flooding, while northeastern regions emit less due to cooler climate. Water management, fertilization, and seed innovations demonstrate high synergistic mitigation potential.
3. Livestock Sector Emissions: The livestock sector accounts for a major share of Chinese agrifood emissions, dominated by enteric fermentation and manure management. Emission shares are 49% from cattle, 23% from pigs, 13% from sheep, and 15% from other livestock. Carbon emissions from enteric fermentation exceed those from manure management, while carbon emissions from energy consumption account for a relatively small proportion. Mitigation strategies include low-emission breeds, clean energy adoption, pasture management, and dietary shifts from red meat to white meat.
4. Energy Structure and Transition: Since 2015, agrifood energy-related emissions have been around 630 million tonnes of CO2eq. Electricity has gradually displaced coal in the energy mix. Tailored transition strategies are needed across pre-production, production, and post-production stages.
5. Food Loss and Waste: Food loss and waste contribute 4% of China’s total emissions, concentrated in postharvest handling (41.6%), production (22.7%), and consumption (19.6%) stages. Fruits and vegetables are the most wasted. A 50% reduction in consumption-end waste could result in a 31% reduction in related emissions.
6. Future Emission Trajectories: Without interventions, agrifood systems carbon emissions could exceed 1.8 billion tonnes of CO2eq by 2060. Multiple coordinated measures, including productivity improvement, low-carbon technology development and application, reducing food losses and waste, adjusting food consumption structure, and low-carbon energy transition and upgrading, could reduce emissions by over 60%, to around 650 million tonnes of CO2eq.
7. Carbon Sink Potential: In 2021, China’s LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) carbon sinks reached 1.32 billion tonnes, with potential to reach 1.76 billion tonnes by 2060. This could offset all agrifood emissions and provide a net of 1.1 billion tonnes of surplus towards national carbon neutrality goal.
Policy Recommendations
First, the agrifood systems have enormous potential for emission reduction, and this reduction needs to be accelerated through improving awareness, policy, technology, and institutional innovation. It calls to enhance understanding of the low-carbon transformation in agrifood systems and develop national strategies and action plans. Policy support systems need to be established to promote the low-carbon transformation of agrifood systems, aiming to accelerate the research, development, and promotion of efficient, green, low-carbon, and multi-beneficial technologies. Additionally, it is crucial to encourage business model innovation, stimulate multi stakeholder participation, and strengthen international cooperation, to share best practices and foster a global approach to the low-carbon transformation of agrifood systems.
Second, reducing methane emissions in crop production, especially in rice, requires the integration of artificial intelligence technology, modern breeding innovations, and institutional reforms. Facilitating the integrated “AI + agriculture” applications can reduce labor costs and improve water management and fertilization efficiency through intelligent sensing and precision control. Increasing breeding investment in low-emission, nutrition synergistic varieties can achieve multi-objective coordination of yield, nutrition, and emission reduction. The emission reduction can be further improved by enhancing land transfer and incentive mechanisms, promoting the aggregation of smallscale farmers into large-scale operations, increasing the adoption rates of emission reduction technologies, and constructing promotable and sustainable emission reduction systems.
Third, the low-carbon transition in the livestock industry requires improvements in carbon emission monitoring, the development of green and low-carbon technologies, and promotion of a balanced diet and crop-livestock integration. Policies are needed to enhance the development of carbon emission monitoring and accounting systems, accelerate research and development in livestock breeding, novel feed additives, clean energy, and alternative proteins, as well as promote the integration of intelligent and information technology. Additionally, croplivestock cycling and ecological livestock farming can help create low-carbon product brands and drive the structural upgrading of the livestock industry through demand-driven transformation. Policy support, carbon markets, and technology innovation can help guide the low-carbon development of the livestock industry.
Fourth, stimulating energy transformation in agrifood systems requires a series of targeted measures. The energy transformation requires cross-departmental collaboration to integrate and innovate policy tools; advance the research, development, and promotion of key technologies; construct an energy transformation information platform with supporting data systems; improve and innovate emission reduction incentive mechanisms; strengthen bidirectional international technical cooperation; and actively participate in the formulation and revision of international rules.
Fifth, to reduce food loss and waste, three primary directions need to be focused on: chain coordination, behavioral transformation, and institutional guarantee to promote systematic, low-carbon, and rule-of-law governance processes. It calls for strengthening supply chain coordination, enhancing cold chain facilities and digital systems, and promoting integrated loss and carbon reduction strategies. Policy incentives and public education must be implemented to guide the transformation of consumption behavior and cultivate a culture of grain conservation. Key instruments include enhancing policy and legal systems, promoting cross-departmental coordination and local legislation, and expanding governance effectiveness through international cooperation.
Sixth, it is crucial to formulate low-carbon transformation plans for agrifood systems, implement multiple measures to promote emission reduction, and pursue the coordinated development of carbon sequestration through various approaches. Carbon emissions from all segments need to be incorporated into a unified framework to establish accounting and monitoring systems and clarify tasks by stages. New technologies should be leveraged to achieve production increase and emission reduction. Research and development (R&D) can stimulate green, lowcarbon, and production-increasing synergistic technologies to enhance agricultural productivity and reduce costs. To increase carbon sinks from agrifood, land use and forests, multiple measures need to be adopted, including afforestation, conservation tillage, and grassland ecological restoration.
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Related Links:
1. Rural Revitalization in China
2. Agrifood System Carbon Emissions and Reduction Policy: Insights from China and Africa
